Book Reading #49: Why We Make Mistakes

Chapter 10
Summary
Chapter 10 focuses on how people tend to believe they are above average. In other words, people tend to be overconfident. Hallinan sites many examples of this: golfing, paying for the gym on a yearly or monthly basis rather than day-to-day and credit card rates. Hallinan then discusses calibration, the difference between a person’s actual and perceived abilities. He discusses that calibration tends to be poor, but weather forecasts are well calibrated. The power of feedback is also discussed (feedback is poor when it comes to gym memberships).

Hallinan also notes that as a task gets harder, people tend to be even more overconfident. The reason described for this is that people are overloaded with information and believe all the information actually makes them more likely to be right. Hallinan uses handicappers at horse races and decisions made by corporate executives as two examples where this holds true. Hallinan also defines metaknowledge: “an appreciation of what we do know and what we do not know.”

Discussion
While interesting, there was a lot of information to absorb in this chapter. I think my favorite part was the history of weather forecasting. We’ve always had probability statements included in the forecast, and it makes so much sense to use them that I never even wondered what might have made weather forecasters start to do use them. I also thought the part about overconfidence and its relation to NutriSystem was an interesting read. I’ve always noted the “Results not typical” notice in those commercials as a reason for people not to use the system. I never considered that people would disregard the message. I just assumed they didn’t notice it.

Chapter11
Summary
In chapter 11, Hallinan discusses how even professionals have difficulty in knowing how good or bad they are at something. He also discusses how experts become experts by practicing, starting at a young age and creating a library of specialized knowledge within the mind. Hallinan also presents information on a study of cognitive maps and mice, discusses how do-it-yourselfers hurt themselves with nail guns and how people prefer to do things without manuals in part because of how long the manuals can be. He then points out how people tend to do something in the first way they learned it – referred to as functional fixity – and backs up the idea with a task involving jars of water. Hallinan concludes by saying we should think outside the box though we usually do not when we already have learned a certain way to complete a task.

Discussion
We actually discussed some of these ideas in class last week when we discussed using keyboard shortcuts. While some of us will be interested in learning better ways to do a task, I know a lot of people – usually people who are not as comfortable with the object they are interacting with – who would rather stick with the first way in which they learn something. I also like the part about reading manuals. I tend to read manuals but most of my friends and family do not. So when they’re having a problem with something, the first thing I ask is “Did you check the manual?” When they say no – which they almost always do – I find the answer for them. There’s a learning curve for those manuals. Read enough of them and you’ll figure out how to best use them.